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HURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102014
800 PM PDT WED AUG 06 2014

Julio has strengthened during the last several hours.  The eye of
the hurricane, which is quite distinct in microwave images, has
recently become apparent in infrared satellite images.  In addition,
the convective pattern is more symmetric about the center than it
was earlier today.  The initial wind speed is raised to 75 kt, using
a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS
ADT.

The hurricane is currently over sea surface temperatures of about
27 C, and in an atmosphere of low shear and relatively high
moisture. Therefore, some additional strengthening is possible
during the overnight hours.   After that time, however, Julio is
expected to cross the 26 C isotherm and should remain over 25-26 C
water for the next few days.  These cool waters combined with a
drier air mass should cause the system to slowly weaken.

The initial motion estimate is about the same as before, 290/14.  A
deep-layer ridge to the north of Julio is expected to keep the
system moving westward to west-northwestward for the next few days.
Beyond that time, the models are in fairly good agreement in
showing a break in the ridge developing due to a large trough
moving eastward over the north Pacific.  This change in the
steering pattern should cause Julio to turn more toward the
northwest in 4 to 5 days.  The track guidance has changed little
this cycle, and the NHC forecast is largely an update of the
previous one.  Based on the latest forecast, Julio will be near or
to the north of the Hawaiian Islands this weekend.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0300Z 16.4N 133.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 16.9N 135.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 17.4N 138.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z 17.9N 141.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  09/0000Z 18.5N 144.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  10/0000Z 20.3N 150.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  11/0000Z 22.8N 155.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  12/0000Z 25.5N 160.5W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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