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TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
200 PM PDT MON AUG 18 2014

Karina has made a little bit of comeback this afternoon. Visible
satellite images indicate that the center is embedded within
the deep convection and there is a hint of a intermittent eye
feature. In addition, there is a cyclonically curved convective
band to the the south of the center. The outflow has also become
better defined. The latest intensity estimate from TAFB was T3.0,
and given the improvement in the cloud pattern, the initial
intensity has been increased to 50 knots. As mentioned in earlier
forecasts, Karina has the opportunity to strengthen a little more as
the circulation moves over warmer waters and into weaker shear
during the next day or so. This is still the case, and it is
indicated in the NHC forecast. By the end of the forecast period,
the outflow from larger Tropical Depression 12-E located to the
northeast should induce stronger shear and prevent Karina from
additional strengthening.

Best estimate of the initial motion is 245 degrees at 6 kt.
There has been no changes in the steering flow around Karina. The
cyclone continues to be trapped south of a subtropical ridge, and
this pattern will keep the cyclone moving slowly south of due west
or to the west for the next 2 to 3 days. The confidence in this
portion of the forecast is high with good guidance agreement.
After that time, Karina's motion will be dominated by the
larger-than-normal TD 12-E, which is forecast to pass to the
northeast. This should result in a collapse of the steering flow
near Karina and very little motion of the cyclone. By the end of the
period, Karina should begin to turn slowly to the northeast steered
by the southwesterly flow on the south side of TD 12-E. This latter
portion of the forecast is much less certain due to the large
guidance spread.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/2100Z 16.1N 133.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  19/0600Z 16.1N 134.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  19/1800Z 16.1N 135.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  20/0600Z 16.1N 136.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  20/1800Z 16.2N 136.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  21/1800Z 16.3N 136.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  22/1800Z 16.3N 136.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  23/1800Z 16.8N 136.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

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