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TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
800 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

Karina's cloud pattern has become a little better organized with the
center embedded within the deep convection. Satellite intensity
estimates from both TAFB and SAB are T3.5 on the Dvorak scale at
1200 UTC. Since that time, deep convection has decreased a little,
and the initial intensity is set at 50 kt instead of the 55 kt
supported by the Dvorak numbers.

As long as Karina remains over warm waters and moderate shear, there
will be small fluctuations in intensity. Once the cyclone moves away
from the deep tropics in 3 days or so, it will encounter cooler
waters and it will begin to weaken. The NHC forecast follows the
intensity consensus model, which keeps Karina at 50 kt for at least
3 more days.

As anticipated, Karina has moved very little and most likely will
meander or remain nearly stationary for the next 24 hours.  As soon
as Karina begins to feel the influence of Tropical Storm Lowell's
larger circulation in 36 hours or so, it will begin to drift
eastward and then northeastward with an increase in forward speed
around the south and east sides of Lowell. Guidance has not changed
significantly, and the NHC forecast is very similar to the previous
one, and very close to the consensus of the GFS and the ECMWF
models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/1500Z 15.8N 136.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 15.8N 136.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 15.5N 136.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  22/0000Z 15.2N 136.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  22/1200Z 15.2N 135.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  23/1200Z 17.0N 132.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  24/1200Z 20.5N 129.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  25/1200Z 26.5N 129.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

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