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TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Marie continues to intensify.  Satellite images show a well-
organized cloud pattern, with considerable deep convection and
numerous rain bands surrounding the center.  The current intensity
estimate is set at 50 kt, which is based on a blend of subjective
Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, ADT values from UW/CIMSS, and
data from a couple of recent ASCAT overpasses.  The tropical cyclone
will be moving over very warm waters of almost 30 deg C and vertical
shear is forecast to remain low throughout the period. Some of the
intensity guidance is very aggressive in strengthening Marie.  In
particular the SHIPS model, which shows strengthening to Category 4
status in 48 hours, and the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index, which
shows a 59 percent chance of a 35-kt increase in winds over the next
24 hours.  The official intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS
guidance through 48 hours, and is a blend of the LGEM and SHIPS
models thereafter.

Marie continues its west-northwestward trek and the motion estimate
is 285/12, which is close to the climatological mean for the basin.
The track forecast and forecast reasoning are basically unchanged.
Marie should move along the southern periphery of a mid-
tropospheric ridge that is forecast to build westward from northern
Mexico through the forecast period.  The official track forecast is
similar to the previous one and remains close to the model
consensus.

The forecast wind radii at days 2-3 have been increased, based on
the global models, which depict a large hurricane by that time
frame.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 13.4N 103.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 13.8N 105.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 14.4N 107.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z 14.9N 109.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  24/1800Z 15.8N 110.7W  115 KT 135 MPH
 72H  25/1800Z 17.5N 114.0W  115 KT 135 MPH
 96H  26/1800Z 20.0N 118.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  27/1800Z 22.5N 122.5W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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