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HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014

Marie continues to quickly strengthen.  Enhanced BD-curve infrared
imagery and a few microwave passes show significant improvement of
the inner core and outer rain band features.  Embedded center
cloud tops continue to cool and are now around -82 degrees C.  The
initial intensity is raised to 65 kt and is based on a compromise of
Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and an
objective ADT current intensity of 72 kt.  The water is warm and the
shear is low, and this ripe environment is expected to remain
conducive for further significant strengthening.  In fact, the SHIPS
continues to show Marie intensifying to a Category 4 hurricane in 48
hours and the SHIPS RI Index indicates that the chance of a 35 kt
increase in winds during the next 24 hours is 4 times the sample
mean.  The intensity forecast follows the SHIPS through day 3, then
sides with the IVCN consensus model as the cyclone traverses sub-26C
sea surface temperatures.

Marie continues toward the west-northwest and the initial motion is
estimated to be 285/11, similar to the climatological mean
for the eastern Pacific basin.  Marie is forecast to move along the
southern periphery of a mid-level ridge that extends westward over
the extreme eastern Pacific from the southwestern United States and
northern Mexico.  The official NHC forecast is close to the previous
package and is hedged toward the TVCE multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0900Z 14.0N 105.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 14.6N 107.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  24/0600Z 15.3N 109.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  24/1800Z 15.9N 111.5W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  25/0600Z 16.6N 113.2W  125 KT 145 MPH
 72H  26/0600Z 18.9N 116.6W  115 KT 135 MPH
 96H  27/0600Z 21.3N 120.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  28/0600Z 24.1N 125.0W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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