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HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014

Marie's eye has cleared out and warmed during the past few hours,
with very cold convective tops surrounding the center.  As a
result, TAFB and SAB measured data T-numbers of 7.0/140 kt, but both
were constrained by Dvorak rules and settled on final-T estimates of
T6.5/127 kt.  Also, a UW-CIMSS intensity estimate from a 0938 AMSU
pass was 126 kt.  Based on these data, Marie's initial intensity is
raised to 130 kt.

The 12-hour motion estimate is 285/13 kt, although Marie has
actually been moving more westward during the past few hours.  The
hurricane is located to the south of a mid-level ridge which
extends from Texas to the northern Baja peninsula, and this feature
should propel Marie basically west-northwestward during the next 3-4
days.  Thereafter, Marie will be located between strengthening
ridging over northwestern Mexico and a weakness in the ridge
leftover by Post-Tropical Cyclone Lowell, and it should begin to
turn north-northwestward by day 5.  There is very little spread
among the track guidance, and the updated NHC forecast essentially
lies between the previous forecast and the TVCE multi-model
consensus, which has shifted a bit to the right beyond day 2.

Intensity fluctuations are always possible once hurricanes like
Marie get this strong.  Assuming unforeseen internal dynamics and/or
an eyewall replacement do not take over soon, the environment
around Marie should be able to support a little more strengthening
during the next 12-24 hours.  Thereafter, slow weakening is likely
until about day 3 when Marie will begin weakening more quickly over
waters colder than 26C and in a more stable air mass.  The new NHC
intensity forecast shows a slightly higher peak intensity to
account for the recent strengthening rate, but otherwise no
significant changes were required.

Although Marie is expected to remain well off the coast of Mexico,
very large swells will affect southwestern Mexico through tomorrow
and much of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula
during the next few days.  These swells will cause dangerous
life-threatening surf and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 16.0N 111.4W  130 KT 150 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 16.5N 112.9W  140 KT 160 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 17.6N 114.5W  135 KT 155 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 18.9N 116.2W  130 KT 150 MPH
 48H  26/1200Z 20.3N 117.9W  115 KT 135 MPH
 72H  27/1200Z 22.5N 122.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  28/1200Z 25.5N 127.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  29/1200Z 28.5N 131.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Berg

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