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HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
200 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014

Marie has an impressive concentric eyewall structure in recent
microwave images.  The inner eyewall surrounds the 15 n mi diameter
circular eye, and the outer one extends about 40 to 50 n mi from
the center.  In addition, a large curved band exists beyond the
inner core and wraps across the southern portion of the
circulation.  The initial wind speed is set at 125 kt, using a blend
of the latest Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB.  A pair
of ASCAT passes around 0500 UTC confirmed the large wind field of
Marie, with tropical storm force winds extending over 250 n mi
away from the center.

Intensity fluctuations are likely today due to the ongoing eyewall
replacement cycle.  As mentioned in previous discussions, these
internal dynamics are not predictable in terms of timing or how
many occur.  Regardless, Marie is expected to be a major
hurricane for at least another 24 hours while it remains in an
air mass of low shear and high moisture, and over 28-29 degrees
Celsius water.  After that time, however, Marie will be moving over
much colder water and into a more stable atmosphere.  These
conditions should promote a steady or even rapid weakening.  The
NHC intensity forecast is mainly an update of the previous one and
lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.

After the eye of the hurricane was wobbling around for much of the
day yesterday, the cyclone seems to be on a smoother northwestward
track now.  The initial motion estimate is 300/10.  A continued
northwestward motion with a slight increase in forward speed is
expected during the next 3 to 4 days while Marie remains steered by
ridging to the north of the cyclone.  A turn to the north-northwest
is predicted by the end of the forecast period when the weakening
system begins to move around the western periphery of the ridge.  No
significant changes were made to the previous advisory, and the
current track forecast lies close to the multi-model consensus,
TVCE.

Although Marie is expected to remain well offshore, very large
swells will continue to affect southwestern Mexico through tonight
and much of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula
during the next few days.  Southerly swells will also reach the
coast of southern California by Tuesday, producing life-threatening
surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0900Z 17.3N 113.9W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 18.3N 115.4W  120 KT 140 MPH
 24H  26/0600Z 19.6N 117.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  26/1800Z 20.9N 119.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  27/0600Z 22.0N 121.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  28/0600Z 24.7N 126.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  29/0600Z 27.8N 130.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  30/0600Z 30.2N 132.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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