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HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
800 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014

The area of the coldest cloud tops surrounding Marie's eye has been
gradually shrinking in size while the eye has started to cool.
However, Marie is still a powerful hurricane, and a blend of CI
numbers from TAFB, SAB, and the objective ADT support maintaining an
intensity of 125 kt for this advisory.  A 1207 UTC SSMI/S pass
indicated that Marie still has a concentric eyewall structure, so an
eyewall replacement has not yet occurred.  Upper-level outflow has
become a little restricted on the northwest side of the hurricane,
but vertical shear is expected to remain light for much of the
forecast period.  Internal dynamics, especially the continued
potential of an eyewall replacement, will likely influence Marie's
intensity during the next 24 hours.  After that time, quick
weakening is expected since Marie will be moving over sub-26C
waters.  The intensity models are in good agreement in Marie's rate
of weakening during the next few days, and the NHC intensity
forecast is therefore very close to the intensity consensus.

Marie has turned northwestward with an initial motion of 305/11 kt.
Mid-level ridging to the north and northeast of the hurricane is
expected to steer Marie on a northwestward or west-northwestward
heading through day 4.  The depiction of a developing mid-level
high along the California/northwest Mexico coast in 3 days has been
a little stronger in recent model runs, and as a result, the track
guidance for Marie has shifted westward.  The updated NHC track
forecast is close to a clustering of the GFS, ECMWF, and TVCE beyond
48 hours.

Although Marie is expected to remain well offshore, very large
swells will continue to affect southwestern Mexico through tonight
and much of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula
during the next few days.  Southerly swells will also reach the
coast of southern California by Tuesday, producing life-threatening
surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/1500Z 17.9N 114.8W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 18.9N 116.4W  115 KT 135 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z 20.1N 118.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  27/0000Z 21.2N 120.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  27/1200Z 22.2N 123.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  28/1200Z 24.5N 128.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  29/1200Z 28.0N 132.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  30/1200Z 30.5N 133.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

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