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HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
200 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014

Visible and microwave satellite images indicate that Marie still has
concentric eyewalls, which are surrounded by another larger and
almost closed ring of deep convection.  Convective cloud tops have
continued to gradually warm and become more asymmetric during the
past few hours.  As a result, Dvorak estimates have dropped, and the
initial intensity is lowered to 115 kt based on a consensus of CI
numbers from TAFB, SAB, and the ADT.  A steady decrease in the winds
is forecast to continue in the short term, but the weakening rate
should quicken after Marie moves over sub-26C waters in about 24
hours.  As a result, the hurricane is now expected to weaken to a
tropical storm in about 48 hours and become post-tropical by 96
hours.  Marie will be over SSTs around 22 deg C in about 72 hours,
so it is possible that it could become post-tropical sooner than
indicated in the official forecast.  The weakening trend shown in
the current NHC forecast is a little faster than the previous
one and is in line with the SHIPS and LGEM models through 48
hours.  Forecast intensities at the end of the period are based more
on the global models, which should have a better handle on the
system during its post-tropical phase.

The initial motion remains 305/11 kt.  Mid-level ridging will
continue to steer Marie northwestward or west-northwestward through
day 4.  Once it becomes a remnant low on day 5, Marie is likely to
turn northward and slow down.  The track guidance has not changed
on this forecast cycle, and the updated NHC track forecast is
basically an update of the previous one.

Although Marie is expected to remain well offshore, very large
swells will continue to affect southwestern Mexico through tonight
and much of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula
during the next few days.  Southerly swells will also reach the
coast of southern California by Tuesday, producing life-threatening
surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2100Z 18.4N 115.8W  115 KT 135 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 19.4N 117.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  26/1800Z 20.6N 119.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  27/0600Z 21.7N 121.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  27/1800Z 22.7N 124.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  28/1800Z 25.5N 129.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  29/1800Z 29.0N 132.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  30/1800Z 31.0N 132.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

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