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TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 07 2014

A small patch of deep convection has been lingering just west
of the center of Norbert during the last several hours.  Although
the cyclone is producing little deep convection, its circulation
remains well established.  An ASCAT pass around 1800 UTC showed
maximum winds in the 40 to 45 kt range, and the initial intensity
is lowered to 45 kt based on that data and the Dvorak CI-numbers
from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS.  Norbert is currently over sea surface
temperatures of around 25 C and is embedded in a stable air mass, as
indicated by the large field of stratocumulus clouds to the west of
the storm.  These unfavorable conditions should cause Norbert to
degenerate to a remnant low on Monday, and open into a trough in 3
to 4 days.  The NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous
one, and follows the global model guidance.

Norbert is gradually turning to the right, and the latest initial
motion estimate is 300/7.  A turn toward the north is expected
during the next 24 hours as the cyclone becomes influenced by a
deep-layer trough to the west of California.  After that time, a
turn to the northeast or east toward the Baja California
peninsula is predicted when the remnant low becomes steered by the
weak low-level flow.  Little change was made to the previous track
forecast, and this one is between the GFS and ECMWF models.

Although Norbert is weakening, tropical moisture will continue
to spread northward across northern Mexico and the southwestern
United States.  This could result in heavy rains and life-
threatening flash flooding in these area during the next day or two.
Please see information from your local weather office for more
details.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/2100Z 26.5N 117.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 27.2N 118.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  08/1800Z 28.1N 118.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  09/0600Z 28.7N 118.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  09/1800Z 29.1N 117.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  10/1800Z 29.5N 116.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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