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TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
200 AM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014

Deep convection has recently redeveloped closer to the center of
Odile, as the shear is perhaps beginning to weaken a bit over the
cyclone. Data from two ASCAT passes and a blend of the latest Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB support maintaining the initial
intensity at 50 kt. The SHIPS model shows the vertical shear
gradually decreasing over the cyclone during the next day or so,
which should allow for gradual intensification in the next 12 hours
and steadier strengthening after that time. The intensity guidance
continues to trend lower this cycle, and the NHC forecast has again
been adjusted downward, but still shows Odile becoming a hurricane
in about 24 hours and reaching a peak intensity of 85 kt in 72
hours. Late in the period, the cyclone will begin moving over cooler
waters, which should result in steady weakening. The NHC forecast is
above the latest IVCN consensus and is close to the SHIPS model at
36 hours and beyond.

Odile has moved little since the previous advisory, as the cyclone
remains in a region of weak steering currents. The best estimate of
the initial motion is a westward drift at 2 kt. A slow westward to
west-northwestward drift is expected during the next 12 to 24 hours,
followed by a gradual acceleration toward the northwest as a
mid-level ridge amplifies to the northeast of the cyclone. Overall,
the track guidance remains in general agreement on this scenario,
but much of the guidance has shifted to the right at days 4 and 5.
The new NHC forecast has been adjusted in that direction and is
close to the EMCWF at the end of the period, but now lies to the
left of the TVCE multi-model consensus.

The initial 34-kt wind radii have been adjusted based on data from
the aforementioned ASCAT passes, which show a large wind field in
the southern semicircle.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0900Z 15.5N 104.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  12/1800Z 15.4N 105.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  13/0600Z 15.6N 105.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  13/1800Z 16.4N 106.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  14/0600Z 17.8N 108.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  15/0600Z 20.9N 112.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  16/0600Z 23.5N 115.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  17/0600Z 25.0N 118.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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