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TROPICAL STORM RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
200 AM PDT THU SEP 25 2014

Microwave data reveal that Rachel is still a sheared cyclone with
the center located to the northeast of the deep convection due to
strong upper-level northeasterly winds. The cloud pattern has
changed little, and Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB, SAB and ADT from
CIMMS support an initial intensity of 35 kt. There is an opportunity
for Rachel to strengthen a little during the next 2 to 3 days as the
shear decreases. After that time, the shear is forecast to increase
again, and the circulation will begin to move over cooler waters,
resulting in gradual weakening.

Microwave and conventional satellite fixes indicate that Rachel is
moving toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 11 kt. The ridge
over Mexico which is controlling the track of Rachel is forecast
to weaken as a strong mid-latitude trough approaches. This
steering pattern should favor a turn to the northwest and north
beyond 48 hours. In fact, track models are in better agreement and
now most of them favor a northward turn and a recurvature with a
decrease in forward speed by the end of the forecast period. By
then, Rachel is expected to be a weakening depression or a remnant
low. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one through 3
days. After that time, it was adjusted eastward a little bit to
follow the multi-model consensus TVCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0900Z 16.0N 108.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 16.8N 110.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  26/0600Z 17.8N 112.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  26/1800Z 18.7N 113.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  27/0600Z 19.5N 114.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  28/0600Z 21.0N 115.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  29/0600Z 22.0N 115.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  30/0600Z 23.5N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

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