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TROPICAL STORM RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
200 PM PDT THU SEP 25 2014

After strengthening earlier today, Rachel appears to have leveled
off in intensity this afternoon.  The initial wind speed is held
at a possibly generous 45 kt based on the latest satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS.  The low-level center of the
storm is located near the northeastern edge of the main area of deep
convection due to about 15 kt of shear.  This shear is expected to
lessen during the next couple of days, which should allow Rachel to
gain strength.  By the end of the weekend and early next week, the
cyclone is expected to move over cooler water, and into an
atmosphere of southwesterly shear and drier air.  These unfavorable
conditions should cause a weakening trend.  The NHC intensity
forecast is a little lower than the previous one in the short term,
but is otherwise unchanged and is near the SHIPS guidance.

Rachel is moving west-northwestward at about 12 kt steered by
mid-level ridging to its north and northeast.  A large trough
currently offshore of the west coast of the U.S. is expected to
move eastward causing the ridge to weaken and shift eastward as
well.  This change in the synoptic pattern should cause Rachel to
gradually turn northward during the next few days.  By the end of
the forecast period, the weakening system is expected to slow down
or become stationary when it becomes embedded in weak low-level
steering currents.  The NHC track forecast is a little to the left
of the previous one and slower at the end of the period, following
the trend in the latest guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2100Z 17.0N 110.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 17.7N 112.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  26/1800Z 18.7N 113.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  27/0600Z 19.5N 115.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  27/1800Z 20.4N 115.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  28/1800Z 22.0N 116.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  29/1800Z 22.8N 115.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  30/1800Z 23.1N 115.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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