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TROPICAL STORM RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

Rachel has lost all of its deep convection, although it is possible
that some sporadic bursts of showers and thunderstorms could return
to the circulation today.  A couple of recent ASCAT passes missed
the radius of maximum winds, but using a blend of the latest Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB, the current intensity is set, perhaps
generously, at 35 kt.  Southwesterly shear over Rachel is forecast
to become even stronger, more than 30 kt, within a day or so and
continued weakening is expected.  The system should degenerate into
a remnant low in 12-24 hours.  The official intensity forecast is
close to the model consensus, although just a little higher,
suggesting that the cyclone could weaken even faster than indicated
here.

There has been little movement over the past several hours, which
was anticipated by the track model guidance.  Rachel is in an
environment of weak steering currents, and is expected to remain so
through today.  A weak low-level ridge developing to the northwest
and north is expected to cause the post-tropical cyclone to move
very slowly west-southwestward in 1-2 days, followed by a turn
toward the west.  The official track forecast is close to the model
consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0900Z 23.3N 117.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  30/1800Z 23.2N 117.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 23.1N 118.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  01/1800Z 23.0N 118.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  02/0600Z 22.8N 118.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  03/0600Z 22.8N 120.3W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  04/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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