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TROPICAL STORM SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014
800 PM PDT THU OCT 02 2014

A series of microwave overpasses during the past few hours
confirmed that Simon is a little south and east of previous
estimates, and that the cyclone is now moving westward or 270
degrees at 4 kt. Although the cloud pattern is gradually becoming
better organized with more symmetric convection and better-defined
outflow, Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB indicate that the winds
are still 45 kt. The CIMSS-ADT indicate that Simon could be a little
stronger.

Simon is forecast to move soon over a pool of even warmer water
and the shear is light. This should result in strengthening, and the
NHC forecast calls for Simon to become a hurricane in about 24
hours. In fact, rapid intensification is not out of the question
since the SHIPS-RI index has increased again tonight. After 3 days,
the circulation of the cyclone will begin to feel the influence of
cooler waters and a stable environment, and gradual weakening
should commence.

There is high confidence that Simon will gradually turn to the
northwest with an increase in forward speed during the next 3 days
while the cyclone is located on the southwestern side of the high
pressure system over Mexico. Most of the track guidance agree with
this scenario. After that time, the confidence in the track forecast
is quite low since the GFS together with its dependent models
recurve the cyclone toward the Baja California peninsula. On the
contrary, the ECMWF keeps Simon moving westward over open waters.
The NHC forecast is in the middle of these two extremes, and for now
keeps Simon drifting northward by the end of the forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 18.1N 108.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 18.3N 109.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 18.9N 111.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 19.6N 113.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  05/0000Z 20.7N 114.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  06/0000Z 22.5N 115.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  07/0000Z 24.0N 115.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  08/0000Z 24.5N 115.5W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

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