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HURRICANE SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014
800 PM PDT FRI OCT 03 2014


Satellite estimates from TAFB, SAB and University of Wisconsin
CIMSS indicate that Simon has reached hurricane intensity with 65
kt. Simon is the 13th hurricane of the quite active eastern North
Pacific hurricane season of 2014, and another cyclone moving very
near or over Socorro Island, Mexico. Hourly observations from that
island provided by the Mexican Navy have been very useful in
determining the structure of Simon.

The cloud pattern is better organized tonight with a small but well-
defined inner core as indicated by the convective ring displayed in
several microwave overpasses during the past several hours. Simon
has the opportunity to strengthen a little more during the next 24
hours as it continues to move over a pool of 29.5 degree Celsius
water and extremely low shear. After 36 hours, the circulation of
Simon will begin to weaken as it moves over cooler waters and into a
more stable environment. The NHC intensity forecast follows the
trend of the guidance which suggests Simon reaching its peak
intensity in a day or so.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west-northwest
or 285 degrees at 10 kt. However, Simon is reaching the southwestern
edge of the high pressure ridge centered over Mexico, and
approaching a large mid-level trough over the Central Pacific. This
pattern calls for a gradual turn toward the northwest and north
during the next 3 days as indicated in the official forecast. Beyond
3 days, the steering pattern becomes more complex, and the cyclone
either recurves to the northeast as suggested by the GFS or begins
to meander as forecast by the ECMWF. Since Simon is expected to be a
weaker storm by the end of the forecast period, it will likely move
little while embedded within the much lighter low-level flow. The
last portion of the forecast is highly uncertain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 19.2N 111.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 19.9N 113.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 20.8N 115.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 21.8N 116.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  06/0000Z 22.5N 117.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  07/0000Z 23.9N 116.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  08/0000Z 25.0N 116.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  09/0000Z 26.0N 115.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

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