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TROPICAL STORM SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014
800 AM PDT MON OCT 06 2014

Simon's cloud pattern continues to deteriorate...with almost all of
the remaining deep convection displaced well to the east and north
of the low-level center.  Using a blend of Dvorak T-numbers from
TAFB and SAB yields a current intensity estimate of 40 kt.  The
vertical shear over the cyclone is currently near 25 kt, and is
forecast to increase to 40-50 kt within the next couple of days.
Given the hostile dynamical environment, continued steady weakening
is expected.  The official forecast shows Simon becoming a remnant
low in 36 hours, although this event may well occur sooner than
that.

The motion is now just east of due north or 010/6 kt.  Simon is
moving along the northwestern periphery of a low- to mid-level
anticyclone.  An approaching shortwave trough should cause the
cyclone to move north-northeastward, with the remnant low moving
across the northern Baja California peninsula and then into extreme
northwestern mainland Mexico and the southwestern United States over
the next couple of days.  The official track forecast follows the
dynamical model consensus, TVCE, rather closely.

Even if Simon or its remnant circulation does not make it across the
rugged terrain of the Baja California peninsula, moisture associated
with this system is expected to spread across the northern Baja
California peninsula, northwestern Mexico, and into the U.S. Desert
Southwest, which could trigger heavy rains in those regions during
the next few days.  Please refer to statements from your local
weather office for information on hazards specific to your area.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 25.1N 117.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 25.9N 117.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 27.0N 116.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 28.1N 116.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  08/1200Z 29.4N 114.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  09/1200Z 32.0N 112.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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