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TROPICAL STORM SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014
200 PM PDT MON OCT 06 2014

Although the tropical cyclone has very little deep convection
remaining, a recent ASCAT overpass indicated that the system had
not weakened as much as earlier estimated.  Data from that pass
showed that the current intensity is about 45 kt.  Water vapor
imagery shows quite a bit of southwesterly shear affecting Simon at
this time, and dynamical models show the shear becoming even
stronger within a day or two.  The official intensity forecast is
above most of the numerical guidance and shows the system
degenerating into a remnant low in 24 hours.  However, since the
ASCAT data revealed a slightly larger and stronger cyclone, and
considering the uncertainties in the forecast track, it is prudent
to issue a tropical storm watch for a portion of the west coast of
the Baja peninsula at this time.

The motion continues about the same as before, or 010/6 kt.  There
is little change to the track forecast or reasoning.  Simon is
moving around the northwestern periphery of a mid-level high
pressure area.  An approaching shortwave trough should cause the
tropical cyclone or its remnant low to move north-northeastward
over the next couple of days.  The official track forecast is a
blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF predictions, with the former
guidance farther north and the latter guidance farther south.

Even if Simon or its remnant circulation does not make it across the
rugged terrain of the Baja California peninsula, moisture associated
with this system is expected to spread across the northern Baja
California peninsula, northwestern Mexico, and into the U.S. Desert
Southwest, which could trigger heavy rains in those regions during
the next few days.  Please refer to statements from your local
weather office for information on hazards specific to your area.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/2100Z 25.8N 117.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 26.8N 117.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 28.0N 116.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  08/0600Z 29.0N 115.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  08/1800Z 30.2N 114.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  09/1800Z 32.0N 112.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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