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TROPICAL STORM SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 07 2014


The cloud pattern of Simon consists of a tight swirl of low
clouds with some patches of convection to the northeast of
the center. A recent ASCAT overpass indicated that there are
35-kt winds associated with the circulation. These winds were
primarily occurring to the southeast and northwest of the center. A
strong shear is forecast to remain over the cyclone, and Simon is
expected to become a post-tropical cyclone in about a day, and then
dissipate over the rugged terrain of Baja California peninsula.

Simon is moving toward the north-northeast or 015 degrees at 6 kt.
The cyclone is already embedded within the mid-latitude
southwesterly flow and this general motion should continue until
dissipation.  The NHC forecast is very close to the multi-model
consensus.

Even if Simon or its remnant circulation does not make it across the
rugged terrain of the Baja California peninsula, moisture associated
with this system is expected to spread across the northern Baja
California peninsula, northwestern Mexico, and into the U.S. Desert
Southwest, which could trigger heavy rains in those regions during
the next few days.  Please refer to statements from your local
weather office for information on hazards specific to your area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0900Z 27.1N 116.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 28.4N 116.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 29.3N 115.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  08/1800Z 30.5N 115.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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