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TROPICAL STORM SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 07 2014

The deep convection associated with Simon has diminished even
further, with only a small patch of showers remaining near the
north-central Baja California peninsula.  Unless significant
convection returns to the circulation later today, the cyclone
could degenerate into a remnant low by tonight.  The intensity is
maintained at 35 kt for now, based mainly on continuity from the
earlier ASCAT pass.  The surface circulation of Simon or its remnant
low is likely to dissipate while it moves into the southwestern
United States, unless it fails to survive its passage over the
mountainous Baja peninsula during the next day or so.

The motion is just slightly faster than before, or 025/8 kt.  With
the cyclone expected to remain embedded in low- to mid-level
south-southwesterly flow, this motion should continue until the
system loses its identity.  The official forecast is close to
TVCN, the dynamical model consensus.

Even if Simon or its remnant circulation does not make it across the
rugged terrain of the Baja California peninsula, moisture associated
with this system is expected to spread across the northern Baja
California peninsula, northwestern Mexico, and into the U.S. Desert
Southwest, which could trigger heavy rains in those regions during
the next few days.  Please refer to statements from your local
weather office for information on hazards specific to your area.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z 27.7N 116.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 28.7N 116.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  08/1200Z 30.0N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  09/0000Z 31.8N 113.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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