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TROPICAL STORM TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Radar from Acapulco Mexico and microwave data show that the center
of Trudy crossed the coast about 60 n mi east of Acapulco around
1000 UTC this morning. Since that time, surface observations and
satellite images indicate that the circulation is becoming disrupted
by the high terrain. However, it is estimated that winds of 40 kt
are still occuring near the coast associated with the southern
portion of the circulation.

Trudy has been moving northward or 360 degrees at 4 kt. The
steering currents are very weak and track guidance shows little
motion during the next 24 hours or so. On this basis, the NHC
forecast calls for little motion.  Since Trudy is already inland
over high terrain, additional weakening is anticipated, and the
cyclone is forecast to be a remnant low by Sunday or even sooner.

Given that Trudy or its remnants are forecast to move little,
torrential rains are expected to continue during the next couple
of days, resulting in flash flooding and mud slides in portions of
southern Mexico, especially near areas of elevated terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 17.2N  98.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 12H  19/0000Z 17.5N  98.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  19/1200Z 17.5N  98.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  20/0000Z 17.5N  98.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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