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HURRICANE VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
100 PM PST SUN NOV 02 2014

Vance continues to gain strength.  An eye has recently become
apparent in visible satellite images and the fairly compact inner
core of the hurricane is getting better organized.  In addition,
banding features are well established on the north and east sides
of the circulation.  The initial wind speed is raised to 75 kt,
following the Dvorak intensity estimates of 4.5/77 kt from TAFB and
SAB.  Vance is currently in favorable environmental conditions with
sea surface temperatures near 29 C, wind shear less than 10 kt, and
high amounts of moisture.  Since the hurricane is expected to remain
in this environment for about another 12 to 24 hours, continued
strengthening is predicted in the short term, and the NHC forecast
lies at the high end of the guidance during that time.  Beyond 24
hours, however, a substantial increase in southwesterly shear and a
decrease in environmental moisture should cause a steady weakening
trend, and Vance will likely degenerate to a remnant low in 3 to 4
days.

The hurricane is moving northwestward at about 14 kt steered by a
mid-level ridge situated to its northeast over the Gulf of Mexico.
A turn to the north with a reduction in forward speed is expected
during the next 24 to 36 hours, followed by a northeastward motion
as a large trough moves eastward toward the cyclone.  There has been
an eastward shift in the guidance beyond 48 hours in this cycle, and
the NHC forecast has been adjusted in that direction.

The initial wind radii were modified based on a pair of ASCAT passes
at around 1700 UTC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 12.8N 108.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 14.1N 109.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 16.0N 110.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 17.7N 110.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 19.3N 109.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 21.5N 108.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 22.5N 108.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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