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HURRICANE VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
100 PM PST MON NOV 03 2014


Earlier today it appeared that Vance was beginning to weaken.
However, that trend has ended and recent satellite images suggest
that the hurricane is a little better organized.  The eye is again
evident in satellite images and the inner core of the cyclone is
well intact.  The initial intensity is nudged upward to 95 kt,
using a blend of the Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.

The hurricane is now moving northward at about 10 kt located on
the western side of a mid-level ridge centered over the Gulf of
Mexico.  Water vapor images show a high amplitude trough digging to
the west of Vance.  This feature is expected to steer the system
north-northeastward during the next couple of days, bringing a much
weaker cyclone near the southwestern coast of Mexico in 2 to 3 days.

Even though Vance has strengthened some this afternoon, steady or
even rapid weakening is still anticipated due to a pronounced
increase in southwesterly shear and drier air.  In fact, the SHIPS
model shows extremely hostile shear conditions with values near 30
kt tonight and more than 40 kt tomorrow.  The NHC intensity forecast
is the same as the previous one and lies very close to the model
consensus.  The current forecast calls for Vance to become a
tropical depression offshore. However, if Vance does not begin to
weaken soon, then the chances of tropical storm conditions reaching
the coast will increase.

Moisture from Vance and its remnants should spread northeastward
across Mexico and into the south-central United States during the
next several days.  This is likely to produce heavy rains over
portions of these areas through Thursday or Friday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 16.4N 110.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 17.8N 110.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 19.6N 109.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 21.4N 108.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  05/1800Z 23.4N 108.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  06/1800Z 25.0N 108.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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