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TROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
700 PM PST TUE NOV 04 2014

The convective organization of Vance has continued to erode
significantly since the previous advisory due to strong
south-southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 45 kt and
entrainment of drier air. As a result, the initial intensity has
been decreased to 45 kt based on a blend of various satellite
intensity estimates. Additional rapid weakening is expected until
landfall occurs in about 18 hours or so, and Vance could be a
tropical depression at that time. After landfall, Vance is expected
to quickly dissipate over the mountainous terrain of northwestern
Mexico.

The initial motion estimate is 025/12 kt. There is no significant
change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Vance is
expected to remain embedded within south-southwesterly flow on the
east side of deep-layer trough for the next 24 hours, which should
result in a north-northeastward motion until landfall occurs.

Moisture from Vance is spreading northeastward across Mexico and
into the south-central United States.  This is producing heavy rains
over portions of these areas which should continue through Thursday
or Friday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0300Z 21.5N 108.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 23.1N 107.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 25.3N 106.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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