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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
500 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2015

...ERIKA EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
TOMORROW NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 52.8W
ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM E OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Montserrat
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Anguilla
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 52.8 West. Erika is
moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a west-
northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is
expected over the next 48 hours.  On the forecast track, the
center of Erika will be near the Leeward Islands Wednesday night
and early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft was 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Wednesday night or early Thursday.

RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches over many of the Leeward Islands through Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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