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HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
800 AM PDT MON JUN 01 2015

Enhanced infrared B-D curve imagery indicates that the eye
temperature has cooled considerably this morning to about 7 Celsius,
which results in a decrease of the subjective satellite intensity
estimates to T6.0 (115 kt).  Based on a compromise of these
estimates and the objective data-T of 6.7 (132kt), the initial
intensity is lowered slightly to 120 kt.  Earlier IR satellite
imagery showed that Andres peaked around 0900 UTC at an estimated
130 kt and it now appears that the expected weakening trend has
begun, likely due to the intruding stable atmospheric marine layer
from the northwest. Andres should be moving over cooler waters
during the next 24 hours, which should result in a more rapid
rate of weakening.  The aforementioned stable air mass, cooler
water, and increasing southwesterly shear by day 3, should cause the
cyclone to become a tropical storm in 48 hours, and a remnant low in
96 hours or less.

The hurricane has made its expected turn toward the west-northwest
and is now moving at 285/5kt.  Andres is forecast to turn toward the
northwest in about 48 hours as the subtropical ridge begins to
weaken with the approach of a deep-layer mid-latitude trough from
the northwest.  By day 3, the approaching trough is expected to
result in a gradual turn toward the north and northeast but with a
significant reduction is forward speed because of the sheared,
shallow structure of the cyclone.  The official forecast is similar
to the previous advisory and is close to the GFS/ECMWF consensus,
GFEX.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 15.7N 120.3W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 16.5N 121.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 17.5N 123.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 18.5N 124.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 19.2N 125.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 20.3N 125.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  05/1200Z 20.8N 125.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/1200Z 20.8N 124.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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