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TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
200 AM PDT WED JUN 03 2015

The coverage and intensity of convection associated with Andres
continues to decrease as the cyclone moves over cooler waters.  The
initial intensity is lowered to 60 kt, which is a blend of the
latest Dvorak T- and Current Intensity numbers from SAB and TAFB.
Increasing vertical wind shear, decreasing sea surface temperatures
along the forecast track, and a drier and more stable airmass should
cause steady weakening during the next couple of days.  Andres is
expected to weaken to a tropical depression in about 36 hours,
and become a post-tropical remnant low shortly thereafter.  The
circulation is forecast to become an open trough before the end
of the forecast period.

Andres is moving northwestward at about 7 kt.  A deepening
mid-level trough to the north of the cyclone is expected to cause
Andres to turn northward and decelerate today.  As the cyclone
becomes a shallow system, it is forecast to turn eastward, then
east-southeastward in the low-level flow.  The updated track
forecast is similar to the previous advisory and close to the
ECMWF/GFS consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0900Z 19.2N 124.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 19.8N 125.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 20.0N 125.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  04/1800Z 20.0N 125.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  05/0600Z 19.9N 124.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/0600Z 19.4N 123.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/0600Z 18.8N 121.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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