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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
1000 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

The convective pattern associated with Tropical Depression
Three-E is gradually becoming better organized. However, recent
microwave imagery and data from the Rapidscat scatterometer on the
International Space Station suggest that the low-level circulation
is somewhat disorganized, being elongated from west-northwest to
east-southeast and possibly having multiple vorticity centers.
Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 35 and 30 kt
respectively. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on these
estimates and a lack of reliable tropical-storm wind reports from
the scatterometer.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 305/9.  The depression
is currently being steered by a mid-level ridge over Mexico.  This
feature is forecast to weaken during the next 72 hours as a large
mid to upper-level trough forms over the Gulf of Mexico.  This
should cause the cyclone to turn toward the north and north-
northeast.  While the track guidance generally agrees with this
scenario, there are some important differences in the models. The
Canadian, NAVGEM, and UKMET models show a fast enough forward motion
that the cyclone makes landfall in southern Mexico.  The latest GFS
run also takes the system close to the coast, but keeps it offshore
at 72 hours.  The ECMWF keeps the system farther offshore during
this time.  After 72 hours, the ridge over Mexico is forecast to
build, which should cause the tropical cyclone to turn west-
northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico if it is still
offshore.  The new forecast track is west of the previous track
based on the initial position and motion, and as a result it is
farther from the coast of Mexico.  However, there is low confidence
in how close the center will actually get to the coast.

The cyclone is expected to be in an environment of warm sea surface
temperatures and light vertical wind shear during the next 48 hours,
which favors steady intensification.  The intensity forecast calls
for the cyclone to become a tropical storm in 12 hours or less and a
hurricane in about 48 hours.  After that, a combination of northerly
shear and possible land interaction suggests that a slower rate of
intensification is likely.  The new intensity forecast is similar to
the intensity consensus during the first 48 hours and in best
agreement with the LGEM model after that time.  An alternative
forecast scenario is that the cyclone makes landfall in southern
Mexico, which would lead to rapid dissipation over the mountains of
that area.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0300Z 12.9N  99.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  11/1200Z 13.2N 100.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  12/0000Z 13.7N 100.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  12/1200Z 14.2N 100.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  13/0000Z 14.7N  99.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  14/0000Z 15.5N  99.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  15/0000Z 16.5N 102.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  16/0000Z 17.5N 104.5W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

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