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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
400 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015


The depression does not appear to be strengthening yet.  The
cyclone has a broad circulation with some evidence of multiple
centers.  A pair of ASCAT passes at 0330 and 0415 UTC showed
maximum winds in the 25-30 kt range.  Given that the convective
pattern has not changed much since the time of the ASCAT data, the
initial wind speed is kept at 30 kt.  This intensity estimate is a
little lower than the Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and
UW-CIMSS ADT which are all T2.5/35 kt.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 305/7.  The system is
expected to slow down and turn northward later today or tonight
when a mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico cuts off
and drifts westward.  The low aloft is expected to weaken this
weekend, which should allow ridging to become better established to
the north of the tropical cyclone.  This pattern change should
cause the system to turn west-northwestward and increase in
forward speed in a few days.  Although a fair amount of spread still
exists in the model solutions, they have come into better agreement
compared to previous cycles.  In fact, most of the guidance has
shifted south and west away from the coast of southern Mexico, and
the official track forecast follows that trend.

The depression is expected to remain over warm water and in a moist
airmass for the next several days.  These conditions support
steady intensification.  A slightly inhibiting factor is vertical
wind shear, which is forecast by the SHIPS model to be around 15
kt for the next few days.  The official intensity forecast is just
an update of the previous one and shows gradual intensification
through the period.  This forecast lies at the high end of the
guidance, in best agreement with the SHIPS model.  It should be
noted that the future intensity of the system is dependent on how
much it interacts with land, so if the system gets closer to the
coast than predicted, the longer range part of the forecast could be
too high.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0900Z 13.1N 100.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  11/1800Z 13.5N 100.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  12/0600Z 14.1N 100.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  12/1800Z 14.4N 100.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  13/0600Z 14.7N 100.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  14/0600Z 15.5N 100.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  15/0600Z 16.5N 103.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  16/0600Z 17.5N 105.5W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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