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TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
400 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

A 1602 UTC ASCAT-B pass showed that Carlos has strengthened somewhat
during the day.  Based on the scatterometer data, the intensity is
set to 45 kt.  This is in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimate
from TAFB.  The tropical storm is currently experiencing moderate
northeasterly shear, and convection is limited to a large band
stretching around the western and southern portions of the
circulation.  Cloud tops have warmed a little during the day, though
a recent burst of convection, located just southwest of the center,
suggests that this is only a temporary trend.  The ECMWF and GFS
forecast that the moderate shear will persist for the next day or
two.  After that, a more favorable upper-level wind environment and
warm SSTs will likely support more strengthening.  The official
intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous advisory,
and is near the intensity consensus, excluding the GFDL which shows
significant land interaction and is considered an outlier.

Carlos has been moving very slowly north-northwestward at about 2 kt
for the past several hours.  The motion is more certain now since
the ASCAT pass also provided an excellent center fix.  No
significant changes have been made to the track forecast.  Carlos
will remain embedded within a weak steering pattern for the next 48
hours, before a deep-layer ridge extending from the Gulf of Mexico
to northwestern Mexico strengthens.  This should force the cyclone
to begin moving west-northwestward, parallel to the coast of Mexico,
at a slightly faster pace.  The forecast track is near the multi-
model consensus, with a little extra weight given to the GFS and
ECMWF solutions.

The initial wind radii were adjusted based on the extremely useful
1602 UTC ASCAT data.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/2100Z 14.1N 100.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  12/0600Z 14.3N 100.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  12/1800Z 14.6N 100.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  13/0600Z 14.9N 100.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  13/1800Z 15.1N 101.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  14/1800Z 15.7N 102.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  15/1800Z 17.0N 105.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  16/1800Z 18.5N 107.0W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Zelinsky

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