ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 400 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 Although the satellite and radar appearance of Carlos has improved slightly during the past few hours, including an intermittent cloud-filled eye feature, cloud tops have warmed by more than 10 degrees Celsius in the convection surrounding the ragged eye feature during this time. Satellite intensity estimates are a consensus T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and SAB, but the intensity is being held slightly lower at 60 kt due to the warming cloud tops. The initial motion estimate is now 310/05 kt. There is no change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. The mid-level ridge to the north of Carlos is expected to strengthen and shift slowly eastward during the next 48-72 hours, which should act to keep the small cyclone moving in a general west-northwestward direction, just offshore of the southern coast of Mexico for the next 48 hours. By 72 hours, Carlos is expected to turn northwestward to north- northwestward around the western periphery of the ridge axis, possibly moving inland from near Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes. Assuming landfall occurs, the high terrain of the Sierra Madre del Sur mountains would keep the main circulation of slow-moving Carlos from penetrating too far inland on days 4 and 5 due to the lack of any strong steering flow. The global and regional models remain in decent agreement on this scenario, and the official forecast track lies a tad to the left of the previous advisory track, following a blend of the consensus model TVCN and the FSSE model. Now that Carlos has begun to move away from the region of cold upwelling and into an environment of light vertical shear, some restrengthening is expected and the cyclone is forecast to regain hurricane status by late tonight or Monday morning. Further slow strengthening is possible until landfall occurs, assuming that Carlos remains far enough offshore of Mexico. The intensity forecast in the latter part of the forecast period continues to remain uncertain since it depends heavily on how much interaction Carlos has with the Mexican landmass by day 3 and beyond. The NHC intensity forecast is above all of the available guidance and is very similar to the previous intensity forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 16.4N 100.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 16.8N 101.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 17.3N 102.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 17.6N 103.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 18.3N 104.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 20.2N 105.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/1800Z 22.4N 105.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 19/1800Z 24.5N 106.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart NNNN