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HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
400 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

Earlier this afternoon, an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
investigating Carlos found 700 mb flight-level winds of 69 kt along
with SFMR surface winds of 64-67 kt in light rain areas. Two
dropsondes released in the eyewall also reported surface winds of 62
and 64 kt. Based on these wind data, the initial intensity of Carlos
has been increased to 65 kt, making the cyclone a category 1
hurricane once again.

The initial motion estimate is 285/05 kt. The latest NHC model
guidance has maintained a bifurcation in the track forecasts after
36-48 hours. The UKMET, NAVGEM, HWRF, and the BAM models continue to
take a significantly weaker cyclone off to the west, whereas the
ECMWF and GFDL models, and now the GFS model as well, keep Carlos a
little stronger and closer to the southwestern coast of Mexico.
Given the relative weakness of the mid-level ridge to the north and
northeast of Carlos, which is expected to further weaken as the
large low pressure system currently located over the west-central
Gulf of Mexico moves across Texas in 24-48 hours, a forecast track
to the west-northwest and closer to the coast of Mexico is the
preferred scenario at this time. The NHC official track forecast
lies close to a blend of the ECMWF, FSSE, GFDL, and GFS forecast
tracks. However, only a slight deviation to the right of the
forecast track would bring Carlos inland along the southwestern
coast of Mexico.

The general trend in the models is for the vertical wind shear to
continue to weaken to around 5 kt by 24 hours. The combination of
light shear and warm SSTs of around 29C could result in some slight
strengthening during the next day or so. However, given the compact
nature of Carlos, any fluctuations in intensity should be
short-lived, so the official forecast calls for a steady intensity
during that time. By 72 hours, Carlos will be moving into
unfavorable thermodynamic conditions and could also be interacting
with the higher terrain of Mexico, resulting in the cyclone
weakening to a tropical depression by 72 hours, and degenerating
into a remnant low by 96 hours. Dissipation of the small storm is
expected by 120 hrs, if not sooner. The intensity forecast is
similar to the previous advisory and the LGEM model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/2100Z 17.0N 103.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 17.3N 103.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z 17.9N 104.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  17/0600Z 18.6N 105.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  17/1800Z 19.5N 105.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  18/1800Z 21.0N 106.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  19/1800Z 22.0N 106.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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