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HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
1000 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

Satellite images suggest that Carlos is maintaining its intensity
this evening.  The center of the compact hurricane is estimated to
be embedded on the north side of a persistent area of deep
convection.  The latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB
support an intensity of 65 kt, which is what the earlier
aircraft data suggested as well.  Carlos remains a very small
tropical cyclone.  The data measured by the Hurricane Hunters
earlier today and a ASCAT pass from several hours ago indicated that
the tropical storm force winds extended no more than 40 n mi from
the center with hurricane force winds confined to a tiny area around
the center.

The northerly shear currently affecting Carlos is expected to lessen
tomorrow while the hurricane remains over warm water.  These
environmental factors would typically support strengthening.
However, most of the models show Carlos weakening or dissipating
during the next few days.  This weakening shown in the models is
possibly due to the interaction with land and the higher terrain of
Mexico and some drier air.  It is also possible that the models
are having difficultly with Carlos given its small size compared to
their resolutions.  The official intensity forecast is mainly an
update of the previous one, but does show Carlos becoming a remnant
low sooner than previously predicted.

Carlos is moving west-northwestward at about 5 kt.  A turn to the
northwest is expected to occur on Tuesday followed by a north-
northwestward motion on Wednesday when the storm moves toward
a weakness in the subtropical ridge enhanced by Tropical Storm Bill
in the Gulf of Mexico.  The models that don't dissipate Carlos have
generally shifted to the left, and the official forecast has been
adjusted in that direction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0300Z 17.2N 103.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 17.5N 104.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z 18.1N 104.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  17/1200Z 18.9N 105.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  18/0000Z 19.8N 106.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  19/0000Z 20.5N 106.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  20/0000Z 21.2N 107.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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