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TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
1000 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

After a brief burst of cold-topped convection early this morning,
first-light visible and infrared satellite imagery indicate that the
convection has started to wane once again. However, a 0950 UTC AMSU
overpass indicated that Carlos has been able to maintain a small but
well-defined ring of convection around the center, despite its
proximity to the coast of western Mexico. Satellite intensity
estimates are coming down quickly and support an intensity of around
40 kt, which was used for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is 330/06 kt. There is no significant
change to the previous track or intensity forecast reasonings.
Carlos is forecast to move north-northwestward along the coast of
Mexico around the southwestern periphery of a weak subtropical ridge
and steadily weaken as the cyclone interacts with the rugged terrain
of the Sierra Madre del Sur mountain range. Carlos is expected to
weaken to a tropical depression by tonight, but that could occur
sooner if the center moves onshore the coast of Mexico later this
morning, which is what the ECMWF and GFS models are forecasting to
happen. The NHC track forecast follows a blend of the FSSE and HWRF
models, and the intensity forecast is similar to the LGEM model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 19.6N 105.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  18/0000Z 20.3N 105.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  18/1200Z 21.0N 106.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  19/0000Z 21.6N 106.7W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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