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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015
400 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

The cloud pattern of the depression appears to be gradually
organizing.  Visible satellite images show banding features
increasing on the east side of the circulation and some of the outer
bands are affecting the southern coast of Mexico.  The initial wind
speed estimate remains 30 kt, in agreement with the satellite
classifications from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT.  It should be
noted that recent ASCAT passes showed slightly higher winds, but
those appear to be partly associated with a Tehuantepec gap wind
event.

The depression is expected to strengthen during the next several
days while it remains over warm water and in atmosphere of low shear
and high moisture.  The GFS and ECMWF models show the system
substantially deepening during the next several days, and the SHIPS
Rapid Intensification Index shows a 63 percent chance of the system
strengthening by 25 kt during the next 24 hours.  Conversely, the
GFDL and HWRF models continue to predict only slight strengthening.
The official forecast is a little higher than the previous one and
lies at the high end of the model guidance, following the SHIPS
model.

The initial motion estimate is 300/9.  A continued
west-northwestward to northwestward motion at about the same speed
is expected during the next couple of days while the system is
steered by a mid-level ridge over the south-central United States.
After that time, a slower west-northwestward motion is forecast when
the ridge weakens. Little change was made to the previous forecast
and it remains near the middle of the guidance envelope.  Although
the current track forecast remains offshore of Mexico, a small
deviation to the north of the projected track could require the
issuance of tropical storm watches or warnings for a portion of the
southwestern coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/2100Z 13.7N  99.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  12/0600Z 14.5N 101.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  12/1800Z 15.7N 103.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  13/0600Z 16.8N 105.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  13/1800Z 17.7N 106.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  14/1800Z 18.7N 108.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  15/1800Z 19.7N 110.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  16/1800Z 20.0N 111.7W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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