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TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015
1000 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

The cloud pattern of Dolores has become a little better organized
this evening, with slightly more defined convective banding features
over the eastern semicircle of the storm.  The current intensity is
increased to 50 kt, which is just a bit above the latest Dvorak
estimates.  The tropical cyclone will be traversing very warm waters
with abundant mid-level moisture over the next day or so, and the
only obvious impediment to strengthening should be moderate vertical
shear.  The shear is not expected to be a strong inhibitor for
intensification, however.  The official intensity forecast is a
blend of the Decay-SHIPS and LGEM guidance and is very similar to
the previous NHC forecast and shows Dolores strengthening close to
major hurricane status.  Weakening should commence later in the
forecast period, when the cyclone nears 20N latitude and the sea
surface temperatures begin to cool significantly.

The initial motion, 300/10 kt, is about the same as in the previous
advisory.  Most of the track guidance shows a continued
west-northwestward motion, albeit almost northwest at times,
throughout the forecast period.  A mid-tropospheric ridge to the
north and northeast of Dolores is forecast by the global models to
weaken over the next few days.  This should cause a decrease in the
forward speed of the tropical cyclone.  Near the end of the forecast
period, Dolores is expected to accelerate a bit as the ridge to the
north builds back in.  The official track forecast lies roughly in
the middle of the guidance suite.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0300Z 16.2N 103.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  13/1200Z 16.7N 105.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  14/0000Z 17.1N 106.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  14/1200Z 17.4N 107.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  15/0000Z 17.8N 108.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  16/0000Z 19.0N 110.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  17/0000Z 20.4N 112.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  18/0000Z 21.4N 115.5W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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