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HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015
900 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2015

Cloud tops have actually cooled around Dolores's eye during the
past few hours, with a black ring completely encircling the eye in
the infrared Dvorak enhancement.  This would suggest that weakening
is not occurring at the moment, and the initial intensity is held
at 100 kt.  Dolores has another 24 hours or so before it reaches
sub-26C water, and given the hurricane's marginal annular structure,
only gradual weakening is anticipated in the short term.  Much
colder water, increasing shear, and a drier, more stable environment
should induce a faster rate of weakening after 24 hours, and Dolores
could become a tropical storm within 48 hours.  The cyclone is
expected to be a remnant low by day 5.  The NHC intensity forecast
is close to a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models for the first 36
hours and then near the IVCN intensity consensus thereafter.  The
SHIPS and LGEM dissipate the system by day 4 or 5, which seems
unrealistic given that the global models maintain a cyclone for the
entire forecast period.

Dolores has been moving northwestward, or 305/6 kt, but it should
turn west-northwestward soon as a mid-level ridge axis builds
westward from northern Mexico.  A turn back to the northwest and
then north-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected
beyond 48 hours once Dolores reaches the western periphery of the
ridge.  The GFS and ECMWF models are in much better agreement than
they were yesterday, and the main outliers on this cycle are the
UKMET and GFDL, which seem too far to the east.  The new NHC track
forecast remains near the GFS-ECMWF consensus and is not much
different from the previous forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/1500Z 19.9N 111.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z 20.3N 113.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  17/1200Z 20.9N 114.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  18/0000Z 21.3N 116.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  18/1200Z 22.3N 117.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  19/1200Z 25.6N 120.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  20/1200Z 29.5N 123.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  21/1200Z 30.5N 124.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

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