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TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015
200 AM PDT MON JUL 13 2015

Satellite images indicate that the cyclone has become a bit better
organized with a growing curved band in the southern semicircle and
more persistent convection near the center. Given the improved
satellite presentation and the 35-kt Dvorak estimates, I've elected
to upgrade the depression to Enrique for this advisory.  The
tropical storm has a day or two to strengthen before it moves into
an area of cooler SSTs, drier air, and higher vertical wind shear.
Most of the guidance support some intensification, so the intensity
forecast will remain close to the previous one, on the higher side
of the model envelope.

After a bit of a northward jump, Enrique appears to be moving
northwestward at about 9 kt.  The track should gradually bend back
to the west-northwest over the next couple of days while the storm
is steered by a building mid-level ridge. The long-range forecast is
rather uncertain due to possible interactions with both Dolores to
the east and a mid-latitude trough to the north.  Overall, the
guidance has shifted north and west at most of the forecast points,
and the NHC track prediction follows suit, lying near or just to the
southeast of the consensus at most forecast times.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0900Z 15.2N 126.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  13/1800Z 16.1N 127.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  14/0600Z 16.8N 128.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  14/1800Z 17.4N 130.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  15/0600Z 17.8N 131.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  16/0600Z 18.5N 135.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  17/0600Z 19.5N 137.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  18/0600Z 19.3N 138.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

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