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TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 14 2015

While Enrique moved over a tongue of warm water, the cloud pattern
became a little better organized. It now consists of a small central
dense overcast surrounded by a cyclonically curved convective band.
The upper-level outflow remains well defined primarily on the
western semicircle.  A recent ASCAT pass indicate that the winds are
at least 40 kt, and since Dvorak T-numbers from all agencies have
increased to T3.0, the initial intensity is now 45 kt.

In about 12 to 24 hours, the circulation will be over cooler
waters, and gradual weakening should begin. The shear is forecast
to increase, adding to the weakening process, and Enrique should
become a remnant low in 3 days or sooner.

Enrique is moving toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 8
kt, steered by the flow to the south of a narrow mid-level ridge.
Global models indicate that in about 3 days, the steering currents
will collapse due to the approach of the larger circulation of
Dolores, and most likely Enrique will meander until dissipation.
This NHC track is consistent with the consensus of the GFS and the
ECMWF models primarily during the next 2 to 3 days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/2100Z 18.4N 130.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 18.8N 131.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 19.5N 133.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  16/0600Z 20.0N 134.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  16/1800Z 20.5N 135.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  17/1800Z 21.0N 137.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  18/1800Z 20.5N 137.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  19/1800Z 20.5N 137.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

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