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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112015
300 AM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

Satellite images indicate that the depression is poorly organized
with an elongated cloud pattern from northwest to southeast and no
appreciable banding near the apparent center.  Dvorak estimates,
however, are unchanged from 6 hours ago, so the initial intensity
will remain 30 kt.

The center of the depression has not been easy to locate with
overnight satellite images, with little help from microwave data as
well. Consequently, the initial motion estimate of 305/14 is based
primarily on extrapolation from the previous forecast.  Despite a
large initial position uncertainty, model guidance is in pretty good
agreement on a northwestward track continuing for the next few
days.  This agreement is apparently due to a well-defined steering
pattern between a mid- to upper-level low located to the southwest
of the depression and a large mid-level high centered over the
southwestern United States.  While there are some speed differences,
overall the model guidance hasn't changed much from the last cycle,
and the latest NHC forecast is basically an update of the previous
one.

Although the shear is not high, the cyclone only has about a day to
strengthen before it reaches cool waters.  Given the large size of
the depression, along with its poor initial structure, significant
strengthening seems unlikely. The intensity models are in fairly
good agreement with the latest official forecast that shows no big
changes in the next day or so.  Cooler waters, drier air, and an
increase in southeasterly shear should cause the cyclone to
transition into a remnant low by day 3.  The latest NHC intensity
prediction is close to the previous one and the model consensus
IVCN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0900Z 17.6N 114.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z 18.9N 116.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  17/0600Z 20.7N 119.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  17/1800Z 22.7N 121.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  18/0600Z 24.3N 124.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  19/0600Z 27.0N 128.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  20/0600Z 29.0N 131.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

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