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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112015
200 AM PDT MON AUG 17 2015

There have not been many changes with the depression overnight.
A small area of deep convection is lingering north of the apparent
center, with the rest of the circulation looking rather stretched.
A partial ASCAT pass showed maximum winds of about 30 kt, so this
will be the initial intensity. The depression is moving across
marginally warm waters, with shear and drier air forecast to
increase notably by Tuesday.  It will take some time for the large
circulation to spin down within these unfavorable conditions, so the
official forecast only calls for gradual weakening, in agreement
with the previous forecast and the intensity consensus. Remnant low
status is expected within 24 hours due to the cyclone passing over
cooler waters.

It is difficult to locate the center with microwave data suggesting
that the circulation remains elongated from northwest to southeast,
and the latest satellite fixes are roughly 100 nm apart. Thus the
initial motion estimate of 310/15 is primarily based on continuity
from the previous forecast.  No changes to the synoptic pattern are
expected with the depression lying between a mid- to upper-level low
to its southwest and a subtropical ridge over the southwestern
United States.  These features are expected to continue to steer the
depression, or its remnants, west-northwestward to northwestward
away from land until it dissipates.  The NHC track forecast is very
close to the previous one, leaning toward the GFS/ECMWF side of the
model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0900Z 20.5N 120.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  17/1800Z 22.1N 122.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  18/0600Z 23.9N 124.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  18/1800Z 25.2N 127.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  19/0600Z 26.3N 129.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  20/0600Z 28.0N 132.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

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