ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132015 900 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015 The cloud pattern of the depression has improved significantly since the previous advisory with the establishment of a well-defined outflow pattern and several curved convective banding features. However, the inner-core convection is rather paltry and limited at this time, and that is the main reason why the system is still a depression despite is otherwise impressive satellite appearance. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on a Dvorak satellite classification of T2.0/30 kt from TAFB. The initial motion estimate of 285/15 kt is based on recent microwave satellite fixes. There is no significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. The cyclone is expected to remain south of a deep-layer ridge located over northern Mexico and the adjacent Pacific Ocean, and move generally westward along the southern periphery of the ridge for the next 3-4 days. By 96-120 hours, the western portion of the ridge is forecast to weaken as a mid-latitude trough drops southward, forcing the cyclone to move on a slower west-northwestward track. The NHC track guidance remains in good agreement on this developing scenario, and the official forecast is similar to the previous advisory track and follows the consensus models GFEX and TVCE. The environment ahead of the depression is expected to be quite favorable for strengthening for the next 5 days or so due to low vertical wind shear, SSTs greater than 29 deg C, and moist mid-level air. Both the SHIPS and LGEM models remain fairly aggressive by making the cyclone to category 3 or 4 hurricane, respectively, by days 4 and 5. Given these favorable conditions and the recent improvement in the depression's structure, the official intensity forecast has been nudged upward from the previous advisory, and follows the IVCN consensus model through 96 hours, and uses a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models at 120 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 11.7N 114.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 12.1N 116.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 12.5N 119.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 12.7N 121.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 12.9N 123.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 13.0N 127.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 31/0000Z 13.9N 131.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 01/0000Z 15.5N 134.9W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart NNNN