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HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152015
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 08 2015

Cloud tops within Linda's CDO feature have warmed significantly
since the previous advisory, likely due to the erosion of eyewall
convection in the northern semicircle caused by the entrainment
of dry mid-level air as noted in recent microwave satellite
imagery. Although the 15 n mi diameter eye remains quite distinct,
satellite intensity estimates have decreased sharply. The initial
intensity of 100 kt is based on an average of Dvorak satellite
T-numbers and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB.

The initial motion estimate is now 325/11 kt. The track and forecast
reasoning remain unchanged. The NHC model guidance is in very good
agreement on Linda moving northwestward for the next 48 hours,
followed by a turn to the west-northwest by 72 hours. After that
time, the model tracks are widely divergent based on the intensity
and resultant vertical depth of the cyclone on days 4 and 5. The
ECMWF takes a weak remnant low due west, whereas the stronger GFS
and HWRF models take Linda more poleward. The official forecast at
96 and 120 hours is a compromise of these extremes and lies close
to the TCVE and GFEX consensus model tracks.

Linda will be moving over sub-26C SSTs and over upper-ocean-heat-
content (UOHC) values of near zero about 12 hours, while the
hurricane is slowing down to less than 10 kt of forward speed. This
should result in significant cold upwelling beneath the cyclone and
induce a rapid weakening phase. As result, Linda is expected to
weaken to a tropical storm by Thursday morning, a depression by
Thursday night, and a remnant low on Friday. The official intensity
forecast follows the downward trend of the previous forecast and the
IVCN intensity consensus model.

Although Linda is forecast to remain well offshore of the Baja
California peninsula, large swells are expected to affect portions
of the west coast of that peninsula during the next few days. In
addition, some of Linda's mid- and upper-level moisture is expected
to spread northward into portions of the southwestern U.S. by day 2
and beyond, which could help trigger locally heavy rainfall. For
additional information, please consult products issued by the NOAA
Weather Prediction Center and your local weather forecast office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0300Z 22.7N 115.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 23.7N 116.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 25.0N 117.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  10/1200Z 26.1N 118.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  11/0000Z 26.9N 119.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  12/0000Z 27.6N 121.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  13/0000Z 27.8N 123.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  14/0000Z 27.6N 125.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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