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HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152015
800 AM PDT WED SEP 09 2015

Deep convection continues to diminish in association with Linda,
with only a small area of cold cloud tops near and west of the
center. The initial intensity has been lowered to 70 kt based on a
blend of the latest Dvorak Final-T and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB.
Further rapid weakening is expected as Linda moves over cooler SSTs
and into a dry, stable air mass. Linda should become a remnant low
by 48 hours, or even a bit sooner.

The initial motion estimate is 325/11. Linda should continue moving
northwestward for the next 36 hours and then turn gradually more
westward as the cyclone becomes a shallow system steered by the
low-level flow. By the end of the period, a motion toward the
southwest or south-southwest is possible. The new NHC track forecast
is similar to the previous one but has been adjusted a bit to the
right and faster to account for the initial position and motion and
the latest trends in the guidance. The NHC forecast is generally
close to or a little to the right of the ECMWF through much of the
forecast period.

Large swells from Linda are affecting the southern and central
portions of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula.
These swells are expected to reach the Pacific coast of the northern
Baja California peninsula today and reach southern California by
Thursday. In addition, some of Linda's mid- and upper-level moisture
is expected to spread northward into portions of the southwestern
U.S. during the next day or two, which could trigger locally heavy
rainfall. For additional information, please consult products issued
by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast
office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/1500Z 24.2N 116.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 25.2N 117.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  10/1200Z 26.3N 118.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  11/0000Z 27.0N 120.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  11/1200Z 27.4N 121.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  12/1200Z 28.0N 122.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  13/1200Z 28.0N 123.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  14/1200Z 27.5N 124.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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