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TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152015
200 PM PDT WED SEP 09 2015

Linda continues to weaken, with the remaining deep convection
becoming displaced from the low-level center due to southerly shear.
The initial intensity is set to 60 kt based on a blend of the latest
Dvorak Final-T and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. Further weakening
is forecast due to cool waters and a dry, stable air mass along the
track of Linda. Linda is forecast to weaken to a depression by 24
hours and become a remnant low by 36 hours. The new NHC intensity
forecast is close to the latest IVCN intensity consensus aid.

The initial motion estimate is 325/09, and microwave imagery
suggests that the surface center of Linda is a little behind
previous estimates as it begins to separate from the convection.
Linda is forecast to continue moving northwestward around the
southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge for the next 24 to 36
hours. Then the remnant low of Linda should gradually turn westward
and then southward in the low-level flow before dissipating in about
5 days. The new NHC track is along the previous one, but is a bit
slower given the initial position and motion through 48 hours. After
that time, a slower motion and faster southward turn is shown before
dissipation, in agreement with the latest trends in the track
guidance.

Large swells from Linda are affecting the Pacific coast of the Baja
California peninsula, and these swells are expected to reach
southern California by Thursday. In addition, some of Linda's mid-
and upper-level moisture is expected to spread northward into
portions of the southwestern U.S. during the next day or two, which
could trigger locally heavy rainfall. For additional information,
please consult products issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center
and your local NWS forecast office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/2100Z 24.4N 117.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 25.4N 118.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 26.4N 119.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 27.0N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  11/1800Z 27.3N 120.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  12/1800Z 27.6N 122.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  13/1800Z 27.0N 122.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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