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BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162015
300 AM MDT MON SEP 21 2015

...DEPRESSION INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...HEAVY RAIN OCCURRING OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 112.7W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NW OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the central portion of the Baja California peninsula
and extreme northwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress
of the depression.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Sixteen-E was located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 112.7
West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 17
mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through this
morning.  On the forecast track, the center of the depression will
move across the Gulf of California and extreme northwestern Mexico
later this morning, and move into southern Arizona this evening
or tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast, and the depression will likely degenerate to
a remnant low by tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce rainfall amounts of
3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches possible
across portions of the Baja California peninsula, the state of
Sonora in northwestern Mexico, and Arizona and New Mexico in the
United States through Tuesday. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches
could occur over portions of southern California through Tuesday.
This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud
slides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.

WIND: Wind gusts to tropical storm force are possible across
the Gulf of California and extreme northwestern mainland Mexico
today, especially in areas of higher terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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