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TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172015
1000 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015

The convective organization has continued to deteriorate, but it
hasn't quite reached the point for the system to be declared a
remnant low pressure system. However, the current ragged appearance
of the shallow convection coupled with west-southwesterly vertical
wind shear of at least 20 kt should cause the depression to
degenerate into a remnant low within the next 6 to 12 hours. The
official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and
the latest SHIPS and LGEM intensity guidance.

Marty still possesses a fairly tight low-level circulation as noted
in the last few visible satellite images and a 2132 UTC SSMI
microwave image, which has made the system fairly easy to locate.
As a result, the initial motion is now 285/07 kt. A mid-level ridge
located over northwestern and central Mexico is expected to force
Marty on a west-northwestward to westward track for the next couple
of days until the shallow cyclone dissipates by 72 hours. The NHC
track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous track
and lies close to the consensus model TCVE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0300Z 16.6N 103.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 16.7N 104.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  02/0000Z 17.0N 106.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  02/1200Z 17.2N 107.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  03/0000Z 17.5N 109.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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