ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 800 PM PDT THU OCT 15 2015 The cloud pattern of the depression has appeared ragged in satellite images most of the day, and the latest Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB have decreased to 1.5/25 kt. The associated deep convection does not have much curvature and it is largely confined to areas to the north and west of the estimated center. Based on the degraded appearance, the initial wind speed is lowered slightly to 25 kt. It is not clear why the depression has not strengthened today as the large-scale environmental conditions have been quite conducive for intensification. The depression is expected to remain in a low wind shear and high moisture environment and over warm water for at least the next few days. Therefore, it is assumed that the system will have the opportunity to gain strength. The GFS, as well as the GFS-based SHIPS and LGEM guidance, are the most aggressive models and show the cyclone becoming a hurricane in a couple of days with continued strengthening thereafter. Conversely, the GFDL and HWRF models show much less strengthening. Given the poor initial structure of the cyclone, the official intensity forecast has been lowered in the short term but remains relatively unchanged from the previous prediction at the later forecast times. The depression is moving westward at about 11 kt steered by a subtropical ridge to its north. A continued westward motion but at a slower pace is forecast during the next couple of days while the ridge weakens in place. After that time, a turn to the northwest is expected as a weakness develops in the ridge east of the Hawaiian Islands. Although there is considerable spread in the guidance on when the northwestward turn should occur, the models agree on the overall theme. The new official track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one for the first couple of days, but then is shifted westward to come into better agreement with the latest model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 10.2N 122.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 10.1N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 10.0N 126.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 9.9N 128.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 10.2N 129.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 11.1N 132.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 12.7N 135.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 15.1N 137.8W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi NNNN