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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015
400 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015

...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 96.0W
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the coast
of Mexico from Lazaro Cardenas to Playa Perula, and a Tropical Storm
Watch from east of Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan De Galeana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lazaro Cardenas to Playa Perula

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan De Galeana

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Patricia was
located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 96.0 West.  Patricia is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a turn toward the
west-northwest and northwest at a faster forward speed is expected
over the next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Patricia is
expected to become a hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of
the watch areas by late Thursday or early Friday.

RAINFALL:  Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20
inches, over the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and
Guerrero later Thursday into Saturday.  These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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