ZCZC MIATCPEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN HURRICANE PATRICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 1000 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 ...PATRICIA WEAKENING BUT REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 104.6W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SE OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Watch for Mexico from east of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Blas to Punta San Telmo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas * North of San Blas to El Roblito A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Patricia was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 104.6 West. Patricia is moving toward the north-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). Patricia should continue to move farther inland over southwestern Mexico, and move quickly north-northeastward across western and northern Mexico through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Patricia is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid weakening is forecast, with Patricia expected to become a tropical storm tomorrow morning, and a tropical depression tomorrow afternoon. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb (27.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring across the hurricane warning area. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue across portions of the warning area and in inland areas near the center through early Saturday. RAINFALL: Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, over the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan, and Guerrero through Saturday. These rains are likely to produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. STORM SURGE: Water levels are expected to gradually subside overnight but remain above normal through late Saturday. Near the coast, large and destructive waves are forecast to continue overnight. SURF: Swells generated by Patricia are likely to affect the southwest coast of Mexico for the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake/Stewart NNNN